NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KGYX 261509
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1009 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A break in precipitation is expected today as high pressure
crosses the area, along with some breezy conditions in the
morning. A weather system moves into the area later Sunday and
Monday, bringing a period of widespread rain and some mountain
snow and mixed precipitation, along with breezy conditions.
High pressure follows with seasonable conditions Tuesday.
Unsettled weather then appears likely Wednesday as another
system moves through the area. Cooler air returns for a brief
time late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1007 AM Update...Winds continue to gradually diminish and
therefore the wind advisory has been allowed to expire.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for this afternoon with
a good deal of sun.

7:29AM Update... Mostly updated temps and POP with this update
based on latest guidance and trends so far this morning.
Northern areas didn`t quite cool as much as expected last
night, likely due in part to the overcast conditions. Temps are
expected to remain fairly steady in these areas today. Scattered
upslope snow shower activity continues to diminish, and winds
are expected to begin to ease after a couple more hours.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track for today.

Previous...

Upslope snow showers gradually dissipate in coverage
through the morning hours. Downwind of the mountains, gusty
winds continue through about mid morning before easing through
the afternoon hours. Wind gusts around 45 mph have been
observed, and some gusts up to around 50 mph are likely over the
next few hours. A ridge axis crosses through the area late this
afternoon, bringing mainly sunny skies, easing winds, and
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The presence of the ridge is short lived as is drifts offshore
tonight. WAA will begin aloft tonight on the return flow on the
west side of the ridge. An inversion develops overnight as
radiational cooling through the evening brings temps down into
the 20s in most areas, and low 30s near the coast. Clouds arrive
around sunrise tomorrow morning ahead of the next storm system.

Clouds increase through the daytime as low pressure moves
through the interior Northeast. Precip quickly spreads from west
to east late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Unlike
yesterday`s system which featured precip arriving when surface
temperatures were at their coldest, precip tomorrow will arrive
late in the day when surface temps are near their warmest, so
freezing rain at the onset of the system is not a concern this
time. However, temperatures will quickly wet bulb into the 30s
and low 40s once rain begins, with northern areas likely seeing
a mix of sleet, snow, and rain by tomorrow evening. As the storm
gradually deepens and moves along the Maine coast, cooler air
will continue to drain into northern areas, allowing for the
possibility of some freezing rain, but this is expected to be
more of a novelty than an icing concern.

South of the mountains, rain is expected through the evening as
temperatures remain too warm to support any mixed
precipitation. So only a dreary evening with temps in the low
40s is expected for these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models remain in relatively good agreement allowing low pressure
to cross over the forecast area Sunday night along with a fast
moving short wave before exiting the region on Monday. Thermal
profiles suggest most of the region will have a precipitation
type in the form of rain, however some snow will fall across the
higher terrain. Mixed sleet and pockets of freezing rain are
possible as well with temperatures remaining relatively steady
during the overnight hours.

The surface low will exit quickly to the east on Monday, leaving
just the northern mountains with some scattered rain and snow
showers.

Much cooler conditions are expected Monday night as high
pressure builds into New England from Canada. By Tuesday, winds
will be light as the high crests over the region with
temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s.

By Wednesday, low pressure will be developing over the Great
Lakes before entering Canada. This will allow for a strong cold
front to move east, with the latest operational Euro run and
ensemble solutions being the fastest with this front. Have
leaned towards a slightly slower solution, bringing the front
through the region late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning. Ahead of the front, warm conditions can be expected for
this time of the year on strong southerly winds. Winds will be
strong on Thursday as well with gusty west to northwesterly
winds creating upslope snow showers in the mountains. Mainly dry
conditions will end out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow
morning. Northwesterly wind gusts around 20- 25kts ease through
the afternoon hours. Low level wind shear is likely at
terminals across southern and western New Hampshire tonight.
Ceilings gradually lower through the day tomorrow, with MVFR and
then IFR ceilings expected by the late afternoon and evening,
occuring at western terminals first. Rain showers also spread
from west to east during the late afternoon.

Long Term...IFR and LIFR conditions expected Sunday night into
early Monday morning in rain and snow with the snow being
confined to the higher terrain where some sleet and freezing
rain is possible. VFR conditions developing thereafter under a
drier northwesterly flow through Tuesday. A strong cold front
will approach from the west on Wednesday with conditions
degrading in lowering clouds and precipitation. Winds will
become strong from the south before strong westerly winds
develop Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue this afternoon. Conditions
ease tonight and early tomorrow, then winds shift to south-
southwesterly by tomorrow morning. SCA conditions are possible
by late tomorrow afternoon as low pressure approaches from the
west.

Long Term...Gusty southerly winds will continue Sunday night
before winds switch to the west and northwest on Monday as a
weather system crosses the region. Winds become light on Tuesday
before a strong cold front approaches from the west on
Wednesday. This will allow for southerly winds to increase along
with gradually building seas.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cannon

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion