NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 190115
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
915 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes through Friday.
High pressure will cross the region this weekend. A cold front
will stall to the north of Maine Monday. Another low will cross
the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:15 PM Update: Radar loops show that the upper low is centered
very near Caribou. The low will pull away from northern Maine
overnight and should be near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of
Saint Lawrence Friday morning. Showers continue to rotate around
the low with the most numerous showers falling north of the low
center in Canada. Made some minor adjustments to lower the PoPs
a bit through the late evening. Observations hint at fog
patches, and just before sunset fog was visible in the
Aroostook River Valley just east of the office. Other than the
tweaks to the PoPs no significant changes are planned at this
time.

Previous discussion:
Vertically stacked surface/upper lows will track from northern
Maine to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight. Expect decreasing
shower chances along with mostly cloudy skies across northern
areas tonight. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy
skies along with isolated/scattered showers early tonight then
decreasing clouds overnight. Patchy fog possible across the
entire forecast area overnight through early Friday. The
vertically stacked system tracks east across the Gulf of Saint
Lawrence Friday, while surface high pressure begins to build
across the region. The western edge of the cold pool aloft with
the exiting system will help support mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated showers across northern areas through early Friday
afternoon with decreasing clouds late. Expect partly/mostly
sunny skies Downeast Friday. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. High
temperatures Friday will range from the mid 70s north, to the
upper 70s to around 80 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fri night will see upr flow transitioning to more of a zonal flow as
H5 low departs into the Maritimes and next low drops south out of
Hudson`s Bay. This leads to clearing skies and winds becoming light,
possibly decoupling in the river valleys. As such have indicated
river valley fog setting up late in the evening and increasing drg
the overnight across the area. Min temps wl be right around normal
values for this time of year, generally in the mid-50s.

Saturday will see valley fog dissipating as the sun comes up leaving
a mostly sunny day on tap. Cannot rule out an isolated sprinkle over
the north in the afternoon even though upr ridge will be cresting
right over head. Enough leftover low-mid level moisture will be
around for a very slim chance for a shower but not enuf to
warrant mention in the fcst at this point.

Saturday night will feature upr ridge maintaining itself as upr
low digs thru James Bay. Conditions will be very similar to Fri
night under moclear skies and light winds with river valley fog
once again developing drg the overnight hours.

Sunday...upr ridge will begin to break down as aforementioned
upr low flings s/wvs twd the region. Clouds will be on the
increase drg the afternoon but highs fcstd to be 2-4 degrees
warmer than Saturday over inland areas. Sea breeze expected
along the coast keeping temps down compared to Saturday to
around 80 degrees. All in all still expecting a nice day on
Sunday with increasing chc for showers very late in the
afternoon across the far northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will slowly approach the area from the northwest next
week. This front will bring the chance of showers Monday through
Wednesday, especially during the afternoon hours with diurnal
heating. The greatest chance of showers will be across northern
areas, closest to the front. Shower chances are expected to decrease
Wednesday night and Thursday as the front is forecast to move
eastward. There is still uncertainty amongst model guidance as to
the exact timing on the frontal passage, so leaned on the NBM for
this forecast. Temperatures and dew points are expected to be a few
degrees above normal values during the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions early tonight with showers.
Variable conditions with patchy fog along with decreasing
shower chances overnight. Variable conditions with patchy fog
regionwide early Friday. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with a slight
chance of showers north early Friday, then VFR during the
afternoon. Across Downeast areas Friday, VFR after any early
morning patchy fog. Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming
west/northwest overnight. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots
Friday, except becoming southwest along the Downeast coast
during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Fri night-Sunday...VFR. May see MVFR/IFR Sat and Sun morning in
patchy fog. W 5-10kts through Sat becoming S 5-10kts Sun.

Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR though MVFR restrictions possible
each afternoon in diurnal showers. S 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Friday. Isolated showers with patchy fog early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA levels into early next
week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...CB/Norcross/Buster
Marine...CB/Norcross/Buster

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion