NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 270439
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1239 AM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will remain near the south New England
coast overnight, then begin to move east later Wednesday. High
pressure will build across the region Thursday into Friday.
Another low will approach from the southwest Saturday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Strong low pressure will loop along the south New England coast
overnight. At the same time, strong high pressure will remain
centered north of Maine blocking the northward movement of the
low. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across northern Maine
overnight. The northern edge of the rain shield with the low
will slowly advance north across Downeast areas overnight,
reaching a line from central Piscataquis to southeast Aroostook
county late. The best rain chances overnight will occur across
Downeast areas, particularly the coast. Northeast winds will
remain gusty overnight, with the strongest winds expected along
the Downeast coast where a Wind Advisory remains in effect for
gusts of 45 to 50 mph overnight. Low temperatures will range
through the 30s north, to the lower to mid 40s Downeast. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along
with overnight temperatures, clouds and rain chances.

Previous Discussion...
Model guidance, including hires models, indicate low wl make
it`s furthest northward movement around 00z tonight before
pinwheeling back to the west twd Cape Cod.

The big story surrounding this system will be the wind gusts along
the coast and over the waters. 40-50kt H9 LLJ wl be moving in this
evening and increasing to between 50-60kts after 06z. Bufkit
soundings are showing warm frontal inversion with low-lvls being
well-mixed to right around 925mb. Hv issued a Wind Advisory for
coastal areas as winds have the potential to gust to 50 mph,
possibly higher at the top of Cadillac Mountain.

Wed afternoon will be a breezy day with winds fm the NE possibly
gusting to between 25-35mph over the remainder of the area. Rain
will begin to move out of the area late tomorrow afternoon with
skies remaining mostly cloudy acrs the south and east. Temps area-
wide wl be around in the lwr 50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The large low pressure system centered south of Cape Code
should slowly make its way east Wednesday night. This will pull
the remaining rain SE out of Downeast and over the waters.
Recent models indicate that the winds will decrease slightly
over land during the night, mostly after midnight. 925mb model
temps show a wedge of cold air to the north of the low, being
pulled in by the strong NE jet. NAM is rather aggressive with
temps, pushing -2C into the north while other model show 0C to
2C in the same region. Decided to keep temps in the low 30s in
the high elevations of the North Woods while the rest should see
upper 30s to low 40s from north to south. This wedge of cold
air still shows in the NAM into Thursday and Thursday night.
However, the other models show near normal temps for both time
periods.

Thursday through Friday will be dominated by a high pressure
ridge to the north. This will help to slowly decrease NE winds
throughout Thursday night. Expect much lighter winds on Friday.
Upper level RH models show much of the moisture being pushed out
of the region with mostly sunny skies on Friday.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quick moving surface low pressure system is expected to push
into state Friday night and into Saturday. This will bring
increased clouds and rain showers throughout Saturday, starting
in the SW and moving to the NE. The push between the exiting
high and approaching low will tighten pressure gradients,
causing another windy day. Rain is expected to last through the
weekend, keeping temps rather mild due to cloud cover and SE
flow. An approaching high pressure system should push the rain
out of the region by Monday and keep conditions dry through
Tuesday. The next rain showers are expected by midweek, however,
model consistency is low on timing.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected at FVE, CAR and PQI overnight through
Wednesday with high pressure maintaining control. LLWS expected
at FL020 late tonight into mid-morning tomorrow at 35kts from
070. KHUL may have some MVFR cigs at times.

Downeast terminals will be low MVFR next 24 hours with cigs
between 010-015. Winds increase overnight with gusts from the
NE between 25-35kts by Wednesday morning. LLWS will also be
present.

SHORT TERM: Wed night...Mainly VFR for all terminals with
improving MVFR Downeast due to rain. N winds 10-15 kts with
gust up to 25 kts Downeast and 20 kts north.

Thur-Fri...VFR. NNE winds 10-15 kts wih gust up to 20 kts on
Thursday. NNE winds diminish to 5-10 kts Thur night and light by
Friday.

Fri night...VFR/MVFR for north terminals and MVFR/IFR for
Downeast due to lower cigs and rain. Light ENE winds.

Sat-Sun...IFR/LIFR vsby/cigs due to rain. ESE winds 5-10 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Storm Warning remains in effect for all the waters
overnight into Wednesday afternoon. Seas will increase to
between 12-17 feet on the outer waters. Winds will drop back to
gale force tomorrow afternoon. Visibilities reduced in rain
overnight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Strong gale winds and high seas expected Wed night
to Thur afternoon. Winds should decrease to SCA by Thur night
with seas remaining >5 ft until Fri afternoon. SCA conditions
are expected through the weekend.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northeast winds, along with high tides and seas, will
lead to the potential of minor splashover around the time of
high tide tomorrow afternoon. Astronomical tides are low but
with strong winds inducing wave action and around 1 foot of
surge expected have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the
high tide tomorrow afternoon.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Farrar
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/CB/Farrar/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/CB/Farrar/LaFlash
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Farrar

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion