NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 261731
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1231 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic stretches
overhead today. The ridge will exit east tonight. Low pressure
will approach later Sunday, move along the Downeast coast
Sunday night, then exit across the Maritimes Monday. High
pressure will cross the region Tuesday. A cold front will begin
to cross the region later Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 pm update...
Sfc ridge is building into wrn zones as of noon with winds
slowly diminishing across the west. They will likely stay up for
another hour or two across eastern zones before finally
diminishing. Low clouds still remain across northeastern zones
this afternoon with nw flow in wake of the departing system. At
the same time mid-high clouds are infiltrating over northern
areas, leaving skies partly sunny with clear skies over
Downeast. May see temps rise another degree or two down south
but most locations across the north have already reached their
highs. Only minor tweaks to temps and sky cover needed.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure continues to track NE into the Maritimes this
morning with another system developing across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley moving into the Ohio River Valley.
Between those lows today will feature a large surface ridge
associated with high pressure pushing well SE of North Carolina
coast. This ridge will allow for a dry day today however because
we are far enough north the pressure gradient is tight enough
for gusty winds to continue. This morning will feature the
strongest NW wind gusts. Expecting widespread gusts 20-30mph but
the higher terrain and open areas of Moosehead to Eastern
Aroostook will see stronger gusts. The best chance of gusts
30-45mph will be around the Moosehead Region to Baxter State
Park. Although isolated power outages cannot be ruled out, not
expecting big impacts from these winds since the trees have no
leaves. Winds will begin to relax later in the afternoon towards
the 3:48-3:58pm sunset. The air mass despite NW winds isn`t
that cold originating across the northern Pacific and becoming
Canadian Continental Polar air mass this past week. Daytime
heating today expect highs in the low to mid 30s north, upper
30s to low 40s from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast
including Bangor. That will also help the pine trees covered in
wet snow where strong gusts occur, expect snow melting off those
trees. Sky conditions today will be mainly sunny across the
southern half of the CWA but expecting a bunch of clouds across
the north on the upslope side of the Longfellows into Aroostook
County. Heading into tonight expect the ridge to slowly drift
east of the area as the next weather maker works into the Ohio
River Valley. Expect the continued partly to mostly cloudy skies
north and clear skies south. Temperatures fall back into low to
mid 20s north, mid to upper 20s south and low 30s at the shore
which is normal for late November. W-NW winds will continue to
lighten up but still expect 5-15mph with gusts across highest
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes Sunday, while low
pressure tracks toward western New England. Clouds will
increase Sunday, wih a slight chance of rain late across
southwest areas. The low will track along the Downeast coast
Sunday night, with precipitation expanding across the entire
region. Enough warm air will be drawn north to keep
precipitation in the form of rain across Downeast areas Sunday
night. Across central portions of the region, expect rain to
transition to a wintry mix. Across northern areas, expect snow
or a wintry mix early with a wintry mix then persisting
overnight. Light snow accumulations are possible across the
north and mountains Sunday night, though amounts are still
uncertain. The surface low exits across the Maritimes Monday,
while the upper trof crosses the region. Expect snow/rain
showers will persist across the north and mountains Monday, with
a chance of mostly rain showers Downeast. High pressure builds
toward the region Monday night with decreasing clouds.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Sunday/Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure crosses the region Tuesday, exiting across the
Maritimes late. A cold/occluded front will approach western
New England later Wednesday, then cross the region Wednesday
night into Thursday though the exact timing is still uncertain.
An upper level trof will also cross the region Thursday. Warm
air and moisture will be drawn north in advance of the front.
Precipitation will develop across the region in advance of the
front. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain
Wednesday, though a snow/rain mix is possible early across
northern areas. Rain will persist in advance of the front
Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation should then
transition to snow or snow showers in the wake of the front
across northern areas, while tapering to rain showers Downeast.
A strong low level jet will also cross the region in advance of
the front later Wednesday into Thursday, supporting gusty south
winds. The strongest winds are expected along the Downeast
coast. High pressure will then cross the region Friday.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday/Friday,
with above normal level temperatures in advance of the cold
front Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across most terminals this afternoon, though KFVE
and KCAR may hold onto an MVFR deck through 21z this afternoon.
VFR expected from PQI north before another area of low clouds
moves in from the west after 03z tonight. KCAR and KFVE may
experience IFR cigs for several hours around daybreak with KCAR
becoming MVFR around 15z. KFVE likely to hold onto IFR through
18z Sun. KPQI expected to become VFR with SCT020 after 14z Sun
while KHUL will be on the southern edge of MVFR cigs but should
retain VFR overnight. Downeast terminals likely to see high thin
cirrus or SKC over the next 24 hours.

LLWS likely at KHUL, KPQI and KCAR between 23-03z tonight. NW
winds will occasionally gust to 20kts this afternoon before
diminishing toward 00z.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR. A slight chance of rain late southwest areas.
South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR. Snow/rain or a wintry mix central and
north, mostly rain Downeast. Variable winds around 10 knots,
becoming north/northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25
knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow/rain showers north, a chance
of rain showers Downeast. North/northwest winds 15 to 25 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots.

Monday night...Occasional MVFR possible across the north and
mountains early with a slight chance of snow showers. Otherwise,
VFR across the region. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots,
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds around 10
knots Tuesday. South/southeast winds around 10 knots Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR. Rain/snow
developing north, with rain developing Downeast. South winds 10
to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to
around 30 knots. Stronger winds possible along the Downeast
coast. Low level wind shear possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale warning continues into early afternoon with
NW winds gusting up to 40kts across the outer waters and 40kts
intra-coastal waters. Seas generally 4-7ft every 5-7sec. Today`s
late morning high tide is expected to be the highest
astronomical tide of the month (see Tides section below). Expect
SCA wind gusts later this afternoon until about midnight. Winds
will fall below SCA after midnight tonight as seas continue to
subside to generally 2-4ft.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels Sunday.
Small craft advisory conditions are then expected Sunday night
into Monday night. Gale force winds are possible Wednesday.
Rain later Sunday into Sunday night, with a chance of showers
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Buster/Sinko
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Buster/Sinko/Norcross
Marine...Buster/Sinko/Norcross

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion